After losing an eight-year war of attrition with Iran, Saddam Hussein decided to occupy Kuwait to restore his reputation. However, the Americans put together a coalition that quickly recovered Kuwait, We had intended to destroy the Iraqi army, but in the immediate aftermath, Iraq's best troops got away. We asked Iraq's Shi'a and Kurds to rise against Saddam in an effort to get them to help us remove Saddam, but then we changed our minds, stood aside and allowed thousands to be slaughtered.

After Kuwait, the United Nations placed WMD. Inspectors from the UN were sent in to make sure. The sanctions destroyed much of the economy of ordinary Iraqis, severely restricting the availability of both food and medicine.

During this same period, to salve its conscience and increase pressure on Hussein, the United States established two "no-fly zones". The smaller covered the Kurdish area. The larger protected the Shi'a in the south. American planes successfully kept the skies in these areas free of Iraqi warplanes, occasionally shooting up Iraqi antiaircraft and other weapons. The air cover was meant to protect the people below from further government retaliation.

Our actions had left behind a legacy of hatred among many Sunni Arabs, but they also led to Iraq abandoning its WMD and the degradation of its military forces. The air force that we met in 2003 was antiquated and poorly trained. The army was half its former size with obsolete equipment.

Lead-up to Invasion

After 9/11, the United States increased no-fly zone activity. We demanded that Iraq allow UN inspectors for WMD, who had left in 1998 due to lack of cooperation, be given free access. They complied, but we did not regard their compliance adequate, nor believe Iraqi statements that they had no WMD. Without further compliance we threatened attack. France, Germany, and Russia demurred. Most members of the UN did not regard Iraqi actions as a sufficient basis for war.

The Invasion

On March 20, 2003 the United States and Great Britain led a "coalition of the willing" into an attack on Iraq. It was a far smaller and less impressive international group than joined the US in the first Gulf War. After heavy bombardment, all major targets were secured. By May 1, the conventional phase of the war was over.

There seemed to have been inadequate plans for the military to take over the policing or administration of the country, as is the common practice after the taking over of an opponent's territory. There was massive looting in Baghdad of everything from museums to weapons storage depots. Instead of working with the previous police and civil administrations, these were largely disbanded.

POLITICAL CHANGES AND INSURGENCY

Administration and government

The country was now ruled by the Coalition Provisional Authority. One of its first actions was to disband the Iraqi Army and to declare the dismissal of all Baath Party members in government positions. Since a large percentage of employment was government employment and since party membership had been necessary for most jobs, this left a large proportion of the population destitute.

Gradually a parallel Iraqi government was set up in preparation for the establishment of a constitutional democracy. Subsequent elections chose delegates to a constitutional convention, adopted a democratic constitution and elected a president and parliament. Provinces are given considerable independence and provision is made for the establishment of regional governments.

The most critical issue in the creation of the governmental system is the way in which power will be divided among the Sunni Arabs, the Sunni Kurds, and the Shi'a Arabs. Since one or another of these groups dominate in most provinces outside Baghdad, this is a question of how power is divided among different provinces. The legitimacy of the elections has never been accepted by many Sunni Arabs, since they had always assumed they were the largest religious group. The elections have, however, supported the calculations of outside observers that about 15% of the people were Sunni Kurds, perhaps 20% Sunni Arabs and 60% Shi'a Arabs, and 5% other. (The figures have a way of not adding up, see

The task has been complicated by the complexity of the insurgent forces arrayed against the Americans and the civilians caught in between. At first, most insurgents were elements of the former army and members of the former ruling Baath party. Later, some Shi'a units, especially those of Moqtada al-Sadr, fought pitched battles with the Americans. But most insurgents seem to represent a loose confederation of persons identifying with al-Qaeda (often with foreign recruits) and nationalism. Both want to prove to the people that the Americans cannot defend them. The goal is apparently to restore the honor either of Islam (al-Qaeda) or Iraq. Attacks of Shi'a on Sunni and vice-versa with little regard to the Americans adds another layer of complexity. But all of these layers are in theory controllable by the same secure and hold strategy that we have now adopted.

CIA:World Factbook: Iraq, 2007.

Wikipedia: Iraq War.

Thomas Ricks, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, Penguin Press, 2006.