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Middle East: Summary Political Analysis |
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Menu and LinksThe American Invasion of Iraq: Origins and Mistakes The American Invasion of Iraq: Constitution and Counterinsurgency The American Invasion of Iraq: Concluding Remarks Lebanon-Israel War 2006 Blog on Iranian Civilization and American Foreign Policy Home |
Politically, the Middle East can be understood along many dimensions. Some are summarized in the following subsections:
Governmental Systems Although most countries in the region have some democratic forms, few have operative liberal democracies. Saudi Arabia is the most conservative hereditary monarchy, but Gulf Emirates such as Qatar or Abu Dhabi are not far behind. Morocco and Jordan come closest to emulating a nineteenth century version of constitutional monarchy. Authoritarian strongman rule characterizes Egypt, Libya, and Syria, while Algeria might be classified as a controlled democracy. Aspiring democracies still ruled by ballots and bullets include Iraq, the Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, and Afghanistan. The closest approximations to modern democracy are Israel and Turkey, although each has important democratic deficits. Israel departs from democracy in the preferences it gives to Jews, both in law and practice. Turkey departs from democracy in its continued, although much weakened, laws against Kurdish, religious, or “anti-national” self-expression. Internal Political Issues Many countries wrestle with the internal disaffection of one or more groups. Algeria continues to face the looming threat posed by religious parties that waged a long, losing war against the military that controls the country. Egypt suffers from the conflict between the democratic aspirations of its middle class population and the desire of its ruler and those around him to preserve the current balance of power indefinitely. A recent vote to extend and tighten President Mubarak’s rule was generally regarded as a thoroughly managed exercise. Israel faces a continuing struggle over how to both preserve the country’s gains and achieve a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians. Many Israelis are also deeply concerned about how to contend with the danger of a growing internal Muslim population affecting the Jewish nature of the state. Palestine is a divided polity, torn between the Fatah and its foreign backers and Hamas and its. A democratic election was supposed to help the “country” move forward, but instead it split people further apart. A recent agreement may overcome this impasse. Palestinian leaders face the nearly insurmountable problem of bringing a polity and region with majorities opposed to the existence of Israel into a peace agreement with Israel that would at least achieve a workable state within achievable boundaries for Gaza and the West Bank. The government of Lebanon is continuing to struggle with the complexities of its internal divisions. Iraq and Afghanistan face internal governability issues that are well known. These are discussed at length in other parts of this site. Inter-country Issues Syria, Lebanon, and the United Nations continue to spar over who was responsible for killing a leading Lebanese politician last year. Because it has only recently withdrawn from Lebanon, Syria continues to be mistrusted by many political leaders. Iranian support of Hezbollah also angers many Lebanese, partially because they lay the 2006 Israeli attacks on the country at the door of Hezbollah and Iran. Relations between Iraq and Iran are good, except in the sense that the Coalition forces in Iraq treat the Iranians as invaders. The new Iraqi government seems to be caught between the demands of two elephants. Afghanistan and Pakistan have continued to spar over the question of Pakistan’s support, or at least nonsuppression of, the Taliban that are staging attacks in Afghanistan Intra-regional Issues The primary intra-regional issue is the challenge that the Sunni Arab states see in a revitalized Iran flying the flag of Shi’ism. Leaders in countries such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia see a Shi’a challenge to the rest of the Muslim world, the emergence of the so-called “Shi’a Crescent” stretching from Iran to Lebanon. They fear that the end result of American interference in Iraq will be the establishment of a Shi’a dominated state closely aligned with Iran. Sunni leaders also worry about Iranian support of Hezbollah, Iranian development projects in Syria (which though largely Sunni is ruled by members of a heretical Shi’a sect) and the development of an Iranian nuclear capability. The fear is also echoed in the Gulf. Sunnis rule the Emirates, but Bahrain has a Shi’a majority and has in the past been claimed by Iran. Inter-regional Issues
Fear of Iranian nuclear development is an international as well as regional issue that has led to skirmishes between the Iran and the Security Council and the United States. Another major inter-regional issue is the intervention by coalition forces in Iraq. Many in the Middle East see this as an undesirable intrusion, an expression of the colonialist mentality of the past. The proposal to admit Turkey to the European Union has also become a major issue for many European countries. There is a standoff over Cyprus. The EU does not want to go forward with talks unless Turkey opens its ports and airports to Cyprus (that is, the Greek dominated main part of the island). For its part, Turkey says that the EU must end the economic isolation of northern Cyprus (the Turkish part) before it will open the ports. |
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